Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-08-20
The Story
Broad risk-off: SPY -0.83%, QQQ -0.79%, IWM -1.32%, with WMT -9.22% on earnings the day's single-name event. Yesterday's bearish bets paid off broadly (7 of 10 right, including WMT, QQQ, SPY, LLY, TSLA, IWM, AAPL), while bullish bets failed (1 of 10 right — only AMD). Index put buying surged to defensive levels across the board: IWM $79.1M at 1232x V/OI, QQQ $155.3M, SPY $116.8M. The one counter-trend pocket was crypto — MSTR +7.80%, COIN +7.46%, IBIT +5.24% — with heavy call prints. WMT's gap down drew both $12.8M in dip-buying calls and $6.9M in puts, making the 105 strike the day's battleground.
Bearish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 68) — $79.1M puts across 7 strikes, 1232x V/OI, PCR_v 6.42. Key prints: 285 Sep18 $22.2M, 295 Sep11 $21.3M at 37x, 283 Sep18 $11.2M at 65.7x. Yesterday's IWM bearish bet was right (-1.32%); spot now $297.61.
META (score 51) — TRO confirmed. $1.9M puts, 36x V/OI, led by 605 Aug31 $1.06M at 36.4x. Spot is down 15.66% over 22 days to $545.77, and the put strikes sit 4-12% above spot.
TGT (score 49) — $3.0M puts, 41x V/OI, anchored by 160 Oct16 $2.44M at 40.9x. This is a fade of a +13.91% 22-day run; spot $158.27, no TRO confirmation.
AVGO (score 48) — $2.7M puts, 105x V/OI, led by 360 Aug31 $1.15M at 29x. Yesterday's AVGO bearish bet was wrong (+0.68%), so this is a re-load against a bounce.
QQQ (score 44) — $155.3M puts across 12 strikes, PCR_v 1.96. The 685 Sep18 put holds $37.5M notional; spot $710.84. Yesterday's QQQ bearish bet was right (-0.79%).
Bullish Bets to Watch
WMT (score 68) — $12.8M calls, 2502x V/OI, concentrated at 105 (Sep18 $3.74M; Aug28 103 strike at 2502.5x). This is a dip-buy after the -9.22% gap to $103.85. Yesterday's WMT bullish bet was wrong.
QQQ (score 56) — TRO confirmed. $75.8M calls across 16 strikes, 125x V/OI. But yesterday's QQQ bullish bet was wrong (-0.79%), so the call flow is fighting the put wall at 685.
AAPL (score 50) — $6.2M calls, 202x V/OI, led by 320 Aug28 $1.44M. Yesterday's AAPL bullish bet was wrong (-1.77%); spot $311.29.
INTC (score 47) — $7.1M calls, 50x V/OI, led by 95 Aug28 $0.96M and 100 Aug31 $0.75M at 29x. Spot is down 12.30% over 22 days to $92.15, so this is a bottom-fishing bet.
SPY (score 46) — TRO confirmed. $37.2M calls across 15 strikes, led by 770 Aug28 $4.08M. Yesterday's SPY bullish bet was wrong (-0.83%), and put notional ($116.8M) is 3x the call notional.
The Oracle Read
Index put buying is the dominant signal — IWM, QQQ, and SPY are all defensive, and yesterday's bearish index bets were right. WMT is the key single-name setup: the 105 strike is where $12.8M of dip-buying calls meet $6.9M of puts after a -9.22% gap. Crypto (MSTR, COIN, IBIT) is the only risk-on pocket with real call flow, but it sits outside the conviction list — treat it as momentum, not tape confirmation.
Names to Watch at the Open
- IWM — downside; 285/283 put cluster, watch $297.61 support.
- WMT — two-way; 105 strike battleground after -9.22%.
- QQQ — downside; 685 Sep18 put wall, spot $710.84.
- NVDA — upside; $38.9M calls, 222 Aug28 $15.0M print.
- MSTR/COIN/IBIT — upside momentum; +7.80%/+7.46%/+5.24% with heavy call prints.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $79.1M | 1232× | 7 | $51.2M | 282–287 | 2026-09-18 | 68 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $1.9M | 36× | 3 | $1.4M | 605–612.5 | 2026-08-31 | 51 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| TGT | Consumer Discretionary | $3.0M | 41× | 2 | $2.7M | 157.5–160 | 2026-10-16 | 49 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $2.7M | 105× | 3 | $1.3M | 360–365 | 2026-08-31 | 48 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $155.3M | 59× | 12 | $76.6M | 681–695 | 2026-09-18 | 44 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $5.2M | 13× | 3 | $2.6M | 310–315 | 2026-08-28 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $18.0M | 242× | 3 | $7.6M | 340–345 | 2026-08-28 | 40 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $116.8M | 45× | 15 | $46.4M | 753–768 | 2026-08-28 | 39 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $10.3M | 16× | 2 | $7.1M | 217.5–220 | 2026-08-28 | 38 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $2.9M | 3× | 2 | $2.9M | 260–262.5 | 2026-08-28 | 38 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GS | Financials | $5.0M | 45× | 5 | $1.0M | 940–960 | 2026-10-02 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GE | Industrials | $0.7M | 15× | 3 | $0.6M | 342.5–347.5 | 2026-08-28 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $5.6M | 49× | 4 | $1.3M | 1235–1250 | 2026-10-16 | 34 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| WMT | Consumer Staples | $6.9M | 72× | 3 | $2.0M | 103–105 | 2026-08-28 | 33 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| MRK | Health Care | $1.1M | 141× | 1 | $0.5M | 145 | 2026-10-16 | 33 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | Consumer Staples | $12.8M | 2502× | 3 | $8.8M | 103–105 | 2026-09-18 | 68 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $75.8M | 125× | 16 | $56.8M | 701–715 | 2026-08-31 | 56 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $6.2M | 202× | 3 | $3.1M | 317.5–322.5 | 2026-08-28 | 50 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $7.1M | 50× | 3 | $2.4M | 92–93 | 2026-08-28 | 47 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $37.2M | 58× | 15 | $20.6M | 758–773 | 2026-08-28 | 46 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $31.0M | 75× | 3 | $18.6M | 345–350 | 2026-08-28 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $10.8M | 51× | 4 | $4.8M | 301–306 | 2026-10-16 | 45 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TXN | Technology | $1.1M | 91× | 2 | $1.1M | 270–275 | 2026-08-28 | 44 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $21.3M | 144× | 3 | $9.1M | 340–345 | 2026-10-16 | 42 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| JPM | Financials | $0.3M | 10× | 3 | $0.3M | 357.5–362.5 | 2026-09-04 | 41 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| C | Financials | $0.2M | 10× | 3 | $0.2M | 133–135 | 2026-08-28 | 41 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $9.6M | 24× | 3 | $4.0M | 535–545 | 2026-10-16 | 39 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| KHC | Consumer Staples | $0.9M | 75× | 2 | $0.9M | 26–26.5 | 2026-08-28 | 38 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $8.6M | 60× | 2 | $4.1M | 360–365 | 2026-09-04 | 38 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $19.4M | 44× | 4 | $7.4M | 462.5–470 | 2026-08-28 | 37 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 15 | 0.50 | 0.67 | $30.2M | 38165 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.57 | 0.87 | $24.6M | 40408 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.55 | 0.38 | $15.2M | 13077 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.59 | 0.88 | $10.7M | 44993 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.81 | 0.79 | $9.8M | 13901 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.59 | 0.64 | $7.9M | 11749 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.56 | 0.75 | $6.0M | 16522 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.47 | 0.34 | $1.0M | 3072 | ⚪ Neutral |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.66 | 0.84 | $0.2M | 3022 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 0.11 | 0.53 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2.26 | 1.49 | $116.8M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.96 | 0.87 | $155.3M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 6.42 | 2.21 | $79.1M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 217.5 | 2026-08-28 | 7137 | 2675 | 2.7× | $4.9M | -0.3% |
| UNH | 420 | 2026-08-28 | 1314 | 869 | 1.5× | $4.7M | -9.2% |
| TSLA | 335 | 2026-08-28 | 8492 | 1111 | 7.6× | $3.5M | 3.5% |
| AMZN | 260 | 2026-08-28 | 6052 | 1943 | 3.1× | $2.6M | 0.0% |
| TSLA | 350 | 2026-08-28 | 2262 | 1232 | 1.8× | $2.5M | -0.8% |
| TGT | 160 | 2026-10-16 | 3069 | 75 | 40.9× | $2.4M | -1.1% |
| TSLA | 340 | 2026-08-28 | 3976 | 1029 | 3.9× | $2.3M | 2.1% |
| TSLA | 345 | 2026-08-28 | 2627 | 520 | 5.1× | $2.1M | 0.6% |
| JNJ | 260 | 2026-10-16 | 2674 | 472 | 5.7× | $1.8M | 2.8% |
| WMT | 110 | 2026-08-28 | 2482 | 1273 | 1.9× | $1.6M | -5.9% |
| ACN | 180 | 2026-09-18 | 1945 | 495 | 3.9× | $1.5M | 0.8% |
| TSLA | 342.5 | 2026-08-28 | 2075 | 142 | 14.6× | $1.4M | 1.3% |
| NVDA | 247.5 | 2026-08-28 | 419 | 65 | 6.4× | $1.3M | -14.1% |
| DE | 600 | 2026-08-28 | 3028 | 169 | 17.9× | $1.2M | 3.3% |
| AVGO | 360 | 2026-08-31 | 1509 | 52 | 29.0× | $1.2M | 1.3% |
Total unusual put notional: $105.5M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.