Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-09-09
The Story
Broad risk-off day: SPY -0.46%, QQQ -0.24%, IWM -1.35%, with nearly every tracked name red. Only energy (XOM +2.16%, CVX +1.82%), banks (WFC +1.94%), and a few semis (AMD +3.06%, INTC +1.64%) closed green. META ripped +6.17% to $651.19 — the day's outlier — and traders immediately sold $41.6M of puts against it. Yesterday's bearish bets mostly paid (MCD, AMGN, ORCL, COST, AXP all fell), but yesterday's bullish bets mostly failed (GS, BLK, GOOG, ADBE, COST all fell). The tape is now defensive across the board: SPY, QQQ, and IWM all show put-heavy flow, with IWM PCR_v at 3.88.
Bearish Bets to Watch
QQQ (score 74) — $31.1M unusual puts, up from $15.0M yesterday. Key print: 680 Nov30 puts at 250.1x V/OI, $17.6M, 5.1% OTM. No TRO confirmation.
META (score 55) — $41.6M puts after a +6.17% pop to $651.19, up from $6.8M yesterday. Key print: 640 Sep25 puts at 100.8x V/OI, $7.6M. Yesterday's bearish bet was wrong (+6.17%); today's flow bets the pop was the top.
AAPL (score 58) — $10.8M puts, up from $3.0M yesterday. Key print: 300 Oct23 puts at 23.2x V/OI, $3.1M, 4.9% OTM. No TRO confirmation.
IWM (score 51) — $40.6M puts, PCR_v 3.88. Key prints: 279 Oct16 puts $20.0M (4.0% OTM) and 276 Oct16 $9.3M at 16.9x. Small caps led the decline (-1.35%).
SPY (score 51) — $43.3M puts across 12 strikes, up from $20.0M yesterday. Key print: 726 Oct16 puts $6.9M, 4.8% OTM. Defensive PCR_v 1.32.
Bullish Bets to Watch
GS (score 89) — $37.8M calls, up from $10.1M yesterday. Key print: 880 Sep18 calls at 1845.0x V/OI, $27.7M, 14.5% ITM. Yesterday's GS call bet was wrong (-0.71%); no TRO confirmation.
BLK (score 72) — $23.4M calls. Key print: 950 Sep18 calls at 400.3x V/OI, $15.0M, 11.4% ITM. Stock fell -2.10% today and yesterday's call bet was wrong.
AMD (score 52) — $110.3M calls, TRO confirmed ✅. Key prints: 490 Oct16 $50.3M and 520 Oct23 $31.3M at 183.9x. Stock +3.06% today; yesterday's call bet was right.
NVDA (score 33) — $157.4M calls, TRO confirmed ✅. Key print: 210 Nov20 calls $156.7M, 6.2% ITM — the largest single call print of the day.
INTC (score 59) — $13.4M calls. Key print: 115 Oct2 calls $10.6M at 29.0x, 8.4% OTM. Stock +1.64% today; yesterday's bearish bet was wrong.
COST (score 59) — $5.5M calls, but stock -0.92% and yesterday's call bet was wrong. Key print: 970 Nov20 calls $0.56M at 27.7x.
The Oracle Read
The tape is defensive: index puts dominate (QQQ, SPY, IWM all put-heavy), and the only fresh conviction is the META fade after its +6.17% pop. The strongest bullish setups are the TRO-confirmed semis — AMD and NVDA — where call flow is large and the stocks are actually moving. Watch whether the broad down day extends; small caps (IWM) are the weakest link.
Names to Watch at the Open
- META — fade risk; $41.6M puts after +6.17% pop, 640 Sep25 key level
- AMD — long; TRO ✅, $110.3M calls, 490/520 strikes
- NVDA — long; TRO ✅, $156.7M calls at 210
- IWM — short; PCR_v 3.88, $20.0M puts at 279
- GS — long; 1845x V/OI on 880 Sep18 calls, but yesterday's bet failed
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | Index ETF | $31.1M | 250× | 6 | $22.2M | 680–690 | 2026-11-30 | 74 🔥 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $10.8M | 32× | 3 | $4.4M | 297.5–302.5 | 2026-10-23 | 58 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $41.6M | 136× | 3 | $20.4M | 640–650 | 2026-09-25 | 55 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $40.6M | 26× | 5 | $30.7M | 275–280 | 2026-10-16 | 51 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $43.3M | 87× | 12 | $30.1M | 749–764 | 2026-10-16 | 51 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $15.4M | 25× | 3 | $7.5M | 367.5–372.5 | 2026-10-23 | 46 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AXP | Financials | $2.6M | 43× | 2 | $2.0M | 360–365 | 2026-09-18 | 44 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $4.2M | 114× | 3 | $1.2M | 104–106 | 2026-09-25 | 44 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SBUX | Consumer Discretionary | $0.3M | 10× | 3 | $0.3M | 100–102 | 2026-09-18 | 41 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| ORCL | Technology | $3.0M | 49× | 2 | $2.1M | 160–162.5 | 2026-09-18 | 41 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| AMD | Technology | $7.6M | 41× | 3 | $2.2M | 510–520 | 2026-09-18 | 38 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ADBE | Technology | $2.9M | 4× | 2 | $2.8M | 255–257.5 | 2026-10-16 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $3.5M | 119× | 3 | $1.1M | 315–320 | 2026-10-23 | 36 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| GS | Financials | $7.2M | 44× | 4 | $2.3M | 1080–1100 | 2026-09-18 | 34 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QCOM | Technology | $0.6M | 30× | 2 | $0.5M | 172.5–175 | 2026-09-25 | 34 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | Financials | $37.8M | 1845× | 3 | $32.7M | 880–900 | 2026-09-18 | 89 🚀 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| BLK | Financials | $23.4M | 602× | 3 | $16.5M | 950–970 | 2026-09-18 | 72 🚀 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $31.3M | 89× | 7 | $19.3M | 742–753 | 2026-11-30 | 68 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $13.4M | 29× | 1 | $10.7M | 115 | 2026-10-02 | 59 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $5.5M | 28× | 4 | $3.8M | 895–910 | 2026-10-16 | 59 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $10.8M | 29× | 3 | $7.2M | 325–330 | 2026-10-16 | 55 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| UNP | Industrials | $9.3M | 901× | 2 | $9.3M | 260–265 | 2026-09-18 | 55 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ADBE | Technology | $0.6M | 372× | 3 | $0.6M | 255–260 | 2026-09-18 | 53 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| AMD | Technology | $110.3M | 184× | 2 | $65.0M | 490–495 | 2026-10-16 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AAPL | Technology | $22.1M | 60× | 3 | $15.2M | 315–320 | 2026-09-25 | 48 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $22.4M | 84× | 3 | $11.5M | 330–335 | 2026-10-16 | 47 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $97.1M | 120× | 3 | $53.4M | 645–655 | 2026-10-16 | 47 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $9.3M | 20× | 3 | $5.7M | 375–380 | 2026-10-09 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $37.9M | 139× | 9 | $11.0M | 755–770 | 2026-10-02 | 44 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| BKNG | Consumer Discretionary | $1.0M | 7× | 3 | $0.9M | 160–163.2 | 2026-10-16 | 41 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.51 | 0.80 | $47.7M | 44169 | 🟡 Caution |
| Technology | 15 | 0.42 | 0.53 | $40.6M | 76508 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.65 | 0.95 | $25.1M | 29533 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.76 | 0.68 | $14.7M | 20170 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.44 | 0.59 | $5.1M | 3186 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.46 | 1.04 | $3.1M | 1318 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.67 | 0.76 | $3.0M | 7959 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.71 | 0.37 | $0.9M | 3712 | ⚪ Neutral |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.22 | 0.96 | $0.3M | 300 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 0.70 | 1.76 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 1.32 | 1.68 | $43.3M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.28 | 1.40 | $31.1M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 3.88 | 2.27 | $40.6M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 640 | 2026-09-25 | 4941 | 49 | 100.8× | $7.6M | 1.7% |
| MCD | 285 | 2026-09-18 | 1415 | 943 | 1.5× | $4.3M | -12.4% |
| META | 645 | 2026-09-18 | 2762 | 704 | 3.9× | $3.4M | 1.0% |
| META | 655 | 2026-09-18 | 1879 | 327 | 5.7× | $3.2M | -0.6% |
| AAPL | 300 | 2026-10-23 | 6420 | 277 | 23.2× | $3.1M | 4.9% |
| AAPL | 337.5 | 2026-09-18 | 1202 | 37 | 32.5× | $2.6M | -7.0% |
| ADBE | 255 | 2026-10-16 | 1539 | 432 | 3.6× | $2.5M | -0.1% |
| TSLA | 360 | 2026-10-23 | 1268 | 51 | 24.9× | $2.3M | 2.1% |
| TSLA | 372.5 | 2026-09-18 | 1719 | 318 | 5.4× | $2.1M | -1.3% |
| META | 640 | 2026-09-18 | 2011 | 1235 | 1.6× | $2.1M | 1.7% |
| META | 650 | 2026-09-25 | 975 | 26 | 37.5× | $1.9M | 0.2% |
| TSLA | 370 | 2026-09-25 | 1338 | 470 | 2.8× | $1.8M | -0.6% |
| TSLA | 365 | 2026-09-25 | 1672 | 332 | 5.0× | $1.8M | 0.8% |
| TSLA | 367.5 | 2026-09-18 | 1941 | 499 | 3.9× | $1.8M | 0.1% |
| TSLA | 360 | 2026-09-25 | 2019 | 579 | 3.5× | $1.8M | 2.1% |
Total unusual put notional: $140.4M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.