Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-09-07
The Story
Markets were closed Monday (Labor Day), so spot is flat across the board and Friday's conviction bets are unvalidated — every name in the validation table reads ⚪ flat. Friday's tape was defensive: $131.1M total unusual put notional, led by index hedges — SPY $34.2M (PCR_v 2.21), QQQ $17.8M (top conviction score 71), IWM $3.7M. The one big shift is on the long side: BLK printed $56.7M in deep-in-the-money Sep 18 calls (990–1030 strikes), the largest single bullish position in the tape, with GS adding $13.0M in calls at 350x V/OI. NVDA is the most contested name — $47.9M in puts (112x V/OI) against $24.0M in calls. COST and MCD are the only bearish bets with TRO confirmation.
Bearish Bets to Watch
QQQ (score 71) — $17.8M in puts across 9 strikes, 35x V/OI. The 718 Sep 25 put is the anchor: $9.0M at 20x V/OI, right at spot $717.91. No TRO confirmation; spot is flat after a +1.23% 35-day run.
COST (score 52) — $2.4M in puts, 114x V/OI, 4 strikes. The 935 Oct 23 put ($0.9M at 114.5x) is the key number. TRO confirmed ✅; spot $915.68, down -1.62% over 34 days and sitting at the bottom of its range.
IWM (score 48) — $3.7M in puts, 121x V/OI, 6 strikes. The 299 Sep 16 put ($0.55M at 7.7x) leads. No TRO; PCR_v 2.21 flags defensive positioning in small caps.
MCD (score 47) — $14.2M in puts on just 2 strikes: 285 and 290 Sep 18 ($8.4M and $5.8M, both ~3x V/OI). TRO confirmed ✅; spot $255.68, down -3.57% over 34 days.
SPY (score 46) — $34.2M in puts, 84x V/OI, 13 strikes. The 745 Sep 18 put ($5.6M) is the largest print. No TRO; PCR_v 2.21 is the most defensive index read in the tape.
Bullish Bets to Watch
GS (score 78) — $13.0M in calls, 350x V/OI, 3 strikes. The 895 Sep 18 call ($5.0M at 350x) is the highest-conviction single print. No TRO; spot $1037.91, down -4.17% over 34 days.
BLK (score 50) — $56.7M in calls, 22x V/OI, 3 strikes. The 1030 Sep 18 call ($22.0M at 5.2x) leads a ladder from 960 to 1040. No TRO; spot $1122.15, up +7.72% over 34 days.
AMZN (score 49) — $3.3M in calls, 296x V/OI. The 255 Oct 23 call ($1.7M at 296x) is the key number. No TRO; spot $258.40.
AVGO (score 49) — $4.8M in calls, 60x V/OI, 3 strikes. The 360 Oct 2 call ($1.5M at 3.0x) leads. No TRO; spot $357.83, down -7.28% over 34 days.
AAPL (score 46) — $10.2M in calls, 202x V/OI, 3 strikes. TRO confirmed ✅; spot $319.80, down -2.36% over 35 days.
The Oracle Read
The index put flow (SPY, QQQ, IWM) says the market is bracing for a down move, but none of it has TRO confirmation yet. The strongest directional setups are the financials on the long side — GS at 350x V/OI and BLK's $56.7M call ladder — and COST/MCD on the short side, both TRO-confirmed. NVDA is a two-way fight ($47.9M puts vs $24.0M calls), not a clean signal.
Names to Watch at the Open
- QQQ — downside, 718 Sep 25 put wall ($9.0M), top conviction 71.
- BLK — upside, 1030 Sep 18 calls ($22.0M), $56.7M total.
- GS — upside, 895 Sep 18 calls (350x V/OI).
- COST — downside, 935 Oct 23 puts (114x V/OI), TRO confirmed.
- MCD — downside, 285/290 Sep 18 puts ($14.2M), TRO confirmed.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | Index ETF | $17.8M | 35× | 9 | $13.6M | 715–729 | 2026-09-25 | 71 🔥 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $2.4M | 114× | 4 | $1.5M | 920–935 | 2026-10-23 | 52 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| IWM | Index ETF | $3.7M | 121× | 6 | $2.3M | 297–302 | 2026-09-16 | 48 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MCD | Consumer Discretionary | $14.2M | 3× | 2 | $14.2M | 285–290 | 2026-09-18 | 47 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| SPY | Index ETF | $34.2M | 84× | 13 | $19.6M | 765–780 | 2026-09-18 | 46 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $4.3M | 42× | 3 | $2.3M | 600–610 | 2026-10-16 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| AXP | Financials | $2.3M | 43× | 2 | $1.8M | 360–365 | 2026-09-18 | 43 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $15.4M | 16× | 3 | $7.8M | 350–355 | 2026-09-18 | 40 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| ADBE | Technology | $4.4M | 138× | 2 | $2.2M | 270–275 | 2026-09-18 | 39 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $47.9M | 112× | 2 | $21.7M | 232.5–235 | 2026-10-16 | 38 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $3.9M | 11× | 2 | $3.2M | 94–95 | 2026-10-02 | 37 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $3.3M | 5× | 3 | $1.5M | 1120–1140 | 2026-11-20 | 31 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $2.5M | 60× | 3 | $0.8M | 472.5–480 | 2026-09-18 | 31 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| XOM | Energy | $0.2M | 4× | 2 | $0.2M | 155–157.5 | 2026-09-25 | 28 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| T | Communication Services | $0.2M | 2× | 2 | $0.2M | 28.5–29 | 2026-09-18 | 27 | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | Financials | $13.0M | 350× | 3 | $8.0M | 895–915 | 2026-09-18 | 78 🚀 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $5.8M | 48× | 4 | $4.6M | 915–930 | 2026-10-16 | 55 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| BLK | Financials | $56.7M | 22× | 3 | $36.3M | 1010–1030 | 2026-09-18 | 50 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $3.3M | 296× | 2 | $3.2M | 255–260 | 2026-10-23 | 49 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $4.8M | 60× | 3 | $3.2M | 355–360 | 2026-10-02 | 49 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $29.1M | 42× | 10 | $15.9M | 711–725 | 2026-11-30 | 48 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $10.2M | 202× | 3 | $5.5M | 320–325 | 2026-10-09 | 46 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $62.0M | 59× | 3 | $35.5M | 355–360 | 2026-09-18 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $9.1M | 60× | 3 | $4.8M | 470–477.5 | 2026-10-02 | 42 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| ADBE | Technology | $1.9M | 101× | 3 | $1.1M | 265–270 | 2026-09-25 | 42 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $37.6M | 376× | 9 | $15.4M | 760–775 | 2026-10-02 | 42 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| NEE | Utilities | $10.8M | 2401× | 1 | $10.7M | 75 | 2026-09-18 | 41 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| UNP | Industrials | $11.8M | 901× | 1 | $11.0M | 260 | 2026-09-18 | 40 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $7.3M | 146× | 4 | $3.3M | 295–297.5 | 2026-10-02 | 39 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $8.1M | 62× | 2 | $2.9M | 340–345 | 2026-10-02 | 38 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 15 | 0.42 | 0.55 | $70.9M | 75794 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.65 | 0.85 | $33.2M | 21525 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.64 | 0.72 | $7.9M | 9369 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.61 | 0.64 | $6.6M | 3268 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.53 | 0.49 | $6.2M | 3951 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.43 | 0.83 | $3.3M | 3199 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.60 | 0.74 | $2.4M | 965 | 🟡 Caution |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.24 | 1.00 | $0.4M | 560 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Energy | 3 | 0.74 | 0.40 | $0.2M | 869 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 6.21 | 1.07 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟡 Caution |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2.21 | 1.58 | $34.2M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.18 | 1.39 | $17.8M | 🟡 Caution |
| IWM | 2.21 | 2.17 | $3.7M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 230 | 2026-10-16 | 11830 | 6669 | 1.8× | $11.9M | -0.1% |
| MCD | 285 | 2026-09-18 | 2930 | 947 | 3.1× | $8.4M | -11.5% |
| NVDA | 235 | 2026-10-02 | 6603 | 105 | 62.9× | $7.0M | -2.2% |
| NVDA | 235 | 2026-10-16 | 4979 | 1286 | 3.9× | $6.2M | -2.2% |
| MCD | 290 | 2026-09-18 | 1706 | 568 | 3.0× | $5.8M | -13.4% |
| NVDA | 232.5 | 2026-09-18 | 4834 | 302 | 16.0× | $3.4M | -1.2% |
| NVDA | 235 | 2026-10-09 | 2674 | 177 | 15.1× | $3.1M | -2.2% |
| NVDA | 240 | 2026-10-16 | 1934 | 1025 | 1.9× | $3.0M | -4.4% |
| INTC | 95 | 2026-10-02 | 5232 | 455 | 11.5× | $3.0M | 0.8% |
| NVDA | 230 | 2026-09-25 | 4201 | 2658 | 1.6× | $2.9M | -0.1% |
| TSLA | 357.5 | 2026-09-18 | 2300 | 712 | 3.2× | $2.8M | -1.0% |
| TSLA | 350 | 2026-09-25 | 2355 | 761 | 3.1× | $2.6M | 1.1% |
| NVDA | 230 | 2026-10-09 | 2466 | 133 | 18.5× | $2.3M | -0.1% |
| AVGO | 360 | 2026-10-02 | 1351 | 372 | 3.6× | $2.0M | -0.6% |
| TSLA | 352.5 | 2026-09-18 | 1927 | 1018 | 1.9× | $1.9M | 0.4% |
Total unusual put notional: $131.1M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.